As you can see, I am very bearish on most equities and
especially bearish on bonds. My
portfolio is currently 100% allocated to commodities: gold, silver and oil. Fortunately, I started investing in these
commodities over 5 years ago so my basis is low which makes it easier to
stomach their volatility. During 2012, I did not buy or sell any shares in my growth portfolio, which
consists of:
Symbol
|
Company/Fund
|
Description
|
#Shares
|
GG
|
GoldCorp
|
Gold mining
|
3,000
|
CEF
|
Central Fund of Canada Ltd.
|
Gold and silver bullion
|
3,000
|
CVX
|
Chevron Corp.
|
Energy: oil and gas
|
1,500
|
PHYS
|
Sprott Silver Fund
|
Physical silver trust
|
2,500
|
PSLV
|
Sprott Gold Fund
|
Physical gold trust
|
2,500
|
The portfolio lost 3.8% during 2012. In May it was up 8% and by September had
fallen to lose 7%, a 15 percentage point swing in 4 months.
Update on October 4, 2013:
Refer to my monthly blog posts for month by month progress reports.
Currently the port-faux-lion consists of:
Updated on May 14, 2013:
Traded 201 shares of CVX for 750 shares of SLW and 500 shares of CDE.
Updated on May 2, 2013:
In April 2013 the value is down 5.1%. CVX gained during the month while the precious metal and mining stocks lost big due to the smack-down of gold and silver prices in mid-April.
YTD the market value is down 5.2%, while the S&P has appreciated 12%.
I still feel that the precious metal mining companies are undervalued. Since CVX just hit an all time high it is about time to shift more of the portfolio from oil to gold and silver.
Updated on April 3, 2013:
In March 2013 the value is up 1.8%. CVX and GG gained during the month while PSLV and CEF were down slightly with the price silver.
YTD the market value of the portfolio is flat, while the S&P has appreciated 10%.
Update on October 4, 2013:
Refer to my monthly blog posts for month by month progress reports.
Currently the port-faux-lion consists of:
Updated on May 14, 2013:
Traded 201 shares of CVX for 750 shares of SLW and 500 shares of CDE.
Symbol
|
Company/Fund
|
Description
|
#Shares
|
GG
|
GoldCorp
|
Gold mining
|
3,000
|
CEF
|
Central Fund of Canada Ltd.
|
Gold and silver bullion
|
3,000
|
CVX
|
Chevron Corp.
|
Energy: oil and gas
|
1,299
|
PHYS
|
Sprott Silver Fund
|
Physical silver trust
|
2,500
|
PSLV
|
Sprott Gold Fund
|
Physical gold trust
|
2,500
|
SLW
|
Silver Wheaton
|
Silver Royalties
|
750
|
CDE
|
Coeur d’Alene Mines
|
Silver mining
|
500
|
Updated on May 2, 2013:
In April 2013 the value is down 5.1%. CVX gained during the month while the precious metal and mining stocks lost big due to the smack-down of gold and silver prices in mid-April.
YTD the market value is down 5.2%, while the S&P has appreciated 12%.
I still feel that the precious metal mining companies are undervalued. Since CVX just hit an all time high it is about time to shift more of the portfolio from oil to gold and silver.
Updated on April 3, 2013:
In March 2013 the value is up 1.8%. CVX and GG gained during the month while PSLV and CEF were down slightly with the price silver.
YTD the market value of the portfolio is flat, while the S&P has appreciated 10%.
I am currently wrestling with 3 major issues related to the investments in this portfolio:
1) Should I start selling CVX? The growth port-faux-lio is heavily weighted in CVX. CVX market value has been tracking the entire market. Money may becomes less easy which would drag down equity, and specifically CVX prices.
2) How much longer can the manipulators suppress gold and silver prices? Gold and silver market values have not changed much in the last 1.5 years. I can hang on for several more years. But if they can get away with it for 10 more years, it would be better to search for higher returns, perhaps in real estate.
3) Why are gold mining companies and specifically GG not valued higher? GG's current share price is only 16 times 2012 net earnings. GG has a much higher P/E than the entire precious metals mining industry because its growth prospects are much better. Is the entire industry under valued?
Chevron is a good investment because among other reasons it has a nice dividend. The dividend should be about $2.70 per share in 2013. The dividend yield at $117 share price is 2.3%, which beats short term interest rates. CVX is 45% of the total portfolio's value and I am starting to consider selling some of it. CVX is a good long term investment. However, I suspect that the entire market is heading in to some hard times and will drag CVX down with it.
Faux is in the middle of the portfolio’s name because for all you know I could be the Samoan uber-prankster Ronaiah Tuiasosopo <http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaaf-dr-saturday/manti-te-os-girlfriend-mastermind-ronaiah-tuiasosopo-posing-164411936--ncaaf.html>
These investments are right for me at this time and will hopefully prove prescient. My tolerance for risk, tax situation, other investments, income, and objectives are certainly different from your own. Therefore what is a prudent investment for me may be folly for you and vice-versa. In addition, market conditions and my assessment thereof can change quickly. I could buy or sell these or other investments without you knowing about it. Even if you did know of it, would you act? To make money in investing you must make and execute two good decisions: when to buy AND when to sell.
Faux is in the middle of the portfolio’s name because for all you know I could be the Samoan uber-prankster Ronaiah Tuiasosopo <http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaaf-dr-saturday/manti-te-os-girlfriend-mastermind-ronaiah-tuiasosopo-posing-164411936--ncaaf.html>
These investments are right for me at this time and will hopefully prove prescient. My tolerance for risk, tax situation, other investments, income, and objectives are certainly different from your own. Therefore what is a prudent investment for me may be folly for you and vice-versa. In addition, market conditions and my assessment thereof can change quickly. I could buy or sell these or other investments without you knowing about it. Even if you did know of it, would you act? To make money in investing you must make and execute two good decisions: when to buy AND when to sell.
