Sunday, January 19, 2014

COMEX February Gold Futures: Countdown to First Notice Day for Settlement (update Jan 19)

COMEX Needs Much More Registered Gold For February

This February will be a very exciting month at the COMEX.  In February 2012 13,910 contracts filed notice on first notice day and 13,063 contracts ultimately settled with 1,306,300 ounces of gold.  Although open interest is about 15% lower this year than last, February should still prove to be a very exciting month because the COMEX has only 370,137 registered ounce of gold in inventory as of Thursday January 18th.  At this time last year, registered inventory was 2,276,000 ounces.

Eligible Inventory Available for Registered - At What Price?
COMEX has over 7 million ounces of eligible gold in inventory that can be quickly converted to registered by creating a warrant.  Eligible gold owners will be able to demand higher prices for their gold.  This is very bullish for physical gold.  Although paper gold prices are another story and may not immediately react.

My first post on this topic has a bit more background:

OI for February Contracts down 17% from Huge Last Year
Last Friday, the third Friday of January the total open interest (OI) in gold futures on the COMEX was 415,680 contracts of which 155,185 were for February expiry.  Total OI is down about 8% from this time last year and OI in February contracts is down about 17%.  Although the amount of February contracts is a bit lower the trend in January with 12 trading days behind us is following that of last year.  OI has been 10-15% less than prior year for the last several months, at least which is as long as I have been closely tracking the data.


  1. Fed-They Do Not Have Any More Gold-Paul Craig Roberts January 21, 2014

    Former Assistant Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts is making some bold new claims about the Federal Reserve and its official government gold holdings. Dr. Roberts contends, “They don’t have any more gold. That’s why they can only give Germany 5 tons of the 1,500 tons it’s holding. In fact, when Germany asked for this delivery last year, the Fed said no. But it said we will give you back 300 tons . . . . So, they said we will give you back 20% of what you trusted us to keep for you over the next seven years, but they are not even able to do that.” Dr. Roberts goes on to say, “The stocks of gold at the Bank of England seem to be disappearing. The stocks of many of the gold trusts, such as GLD, are being looted . . . all of this gold is disappearing into Asian markets. The entire West is being drained of gold.” According to Dr. Roberts, this is an inflection point for the gold market. Dr. Roberts says, “The reason is: the ability to supply large amounts of gold to the bullion dealers to sell has diminished with the supply of gold and silver. What the Fed did was turn to massive ‘naked shorts’ of gold futures contracts. They don’t have the real gold . . . so they come in and dump contracts, say in a period of 6 minutes, that are three times the amount of gold COMEX has to make delivery. . . . So, it drives down the price of gold. That’s how they got the price down from $1,900 to $1,250.”

    Roberts contends that America’s gold is “mainly gone.” That’s right, a former Assistant Treasury Secretary who is the father of Reaganomics, says, “They obviously don’t have any because, if they did, they would have given Germany’s gold back. If they had any, they would let people audit the vaults.” Dr. Roberts warns, “The point is the ability to continue selling these ‘naked shorts’ is now disappearing because there is no gold left to back them up. . . . None of these EFT’s has the gold to back the shares. The ability to continue looting them in order to make good on gold deliveries is running out. So, this will prevent the Fed from selling ‘naked shorts’ to protect the dollar from its policy of quantitative easing. That’s what’s it’s all about. You can’t print $1,000 billion new dollars every year without causing other holders of dollars to wonder about the value of the money and to seek a way of getting out of it. China has been doing that by going into gold.”

  2. Thanks for your great work on Comex Gold Live Tips! Keep in mind another reason to buy physical for newbies: You are helping your own cause!

  3. Gold physical demand has surged in India and China after the price drop. The two gold buying behemoths account for more than half of annual global bullion demand for Comex gold live tips.

  4. Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 182.05 the cash segment on Tuesday while the DIIs were net sellers of Rs 335.75 as per the provisional figures.capitalstars