Thursday, October 3, 2013

Gold could go to $1,000/ounce. Really? Rant Warning!

Many precious metals market pundits and news services are losing credibility fast.  The puff pieces are not distinguishable by reading the headline.  I keep getting suckered in to wasting time on speculation.  "Gold could go to $1,000" claims the pundit who has enough credibility to get video time on news.  OK, thanks.  That's nice.  When? and Why?  If you are not confident enough with your market prognostication to provide a timeline then keep it to yourself.  Is gold going to hit $5,000 before private ownership is outlawed and then drop to $1,000?  Will the new dollar be issued for 10 old dollars and be backed by 1/1,000 an ounce of gold?

Why? Why? Why, is your forecast going to come true?  Do you have any new information or perspective to add?  Or, is it just over bought?  Or perhaps the technical analysis shows an inverse head and shoulders pattern just as the market exhibited in 1976.  

What does over bought mean?  There were just as many sellers as buyers!  Is a stock down for the day because it was over bought or because there was profit taking?  My ears now translate these buzz words as "I have no idea, but I need to say something."   

Is there anyone left who thinks that technical analysis can predict precious metals prices over the next day, week, or month?  Did any chartist predict that gold would fall from $1,700 to $1,100 in the first half of this year?  Did anyone forecast that gold would rebound from $1,100 to $1,400 in the last 3 months?  Predictions from charts are doomed to fail because they are based on history.  Precious metals markets are event driven when they are not being manipulated.  Events do not repeat themselves.  They are not cyclical.  Big events are so random that they get named black swan or crash.  

Even if a forecast accurately predicted an event, would it also guess the impact to precious metals correct?  Who would have thought that when the US government shut down the price of gold would drop 3% as it did on October 1st?  That price drop certainly had more to do with the bullion banks dropping large sell orders than with any macroeconomic event.

The bullion banks are manipulating the prices of precious metals on the COMEX and the LBMA.   Trading during the day, week, month and even year is therefore, a function of the bullion banks greed and fear.  Greed to run the stops and fear of physical delivery demands.  Is a technical analysis or chart going to predict that someone would offer 300 tons of gold for sale on the COMEX in 30 minutes at any price as happened in mid April?

Investors have very little reliable, timely information about the precious metals markets.  How credible are the COMEX trading and warehouse data, the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports, and ETP inventory, for example.  We must use these reports because they are the only data available.  Use with a very skeptical eye.  The publishers have the motive and the opportunity to deceive and a track record of greed, corruption, and unethical behavior.

Harvey Organ's daily reporting is terrific.  But, remember that he reports the tonnes of gold at GLD each night and then comments that "There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat  (same banks)

Only the manipulators can predict short term prices in these opaque, managed markets.  Don't waste my time with what COULD happen.  Focus on facts.  What is happening with physical bullion demand or supply?  Is there anything new regarding confiscation risk?  What premiums are being paid for physical?  Where?  There is a lot to learn and report without resorting to speculation.


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